Take these lessons as a way to prepare for future online sportsbook success. Sportsbook lessons of college football success came from all over the land this year. Illinois was a great lesson for sportsbook players on how last year’s results can mean nothing as far as this year’s online sportsbook value.
Illinois surprised everyone in online sportsbook gambling last year with the Big Ten title and a trip to the Rose Bowl. But just as the Illini surprised everyone in a positive fashion last year they did so again in a negative way for 2008.
Just as the general sportsbook public began to fully believe in Illinois, the Illini suffered through an online sportsbook collapse as they covered just 4 out of their 11 games on the board. This sportsbook lesson is all about how a gambler must focus not just on the past or present but on the present VALUE.
Another way to look at it is that a sportsbook value is often based on last year, but the REAL sportsbook value of a team can be assessed if you can judge how that team will do this year. Illinois is a classic sportsbook example of a team that came “too far too fast” and was likely set for a fall in the season that followed.
That is no knock on the Illini but it is a sportsbook fact of life that when a team emerges “from the bushes” they eventually get exposed. The days of Illinois surprising their opponents and gamblers ended in 2007. High expectations can often mean low value at a sportsbook as it did for Illinois in 2008.
The Minnesota Golden Gophers proved to be an opposite lesson of Illinois. Last year the Gophers had only one straight up win for the entire season, making them an excellent sleeper candidate for 2008.
Minnesota had no sportsbook appeal with gamblers, which meant that the oddsmakers would have to entice gamblers with extra value to take the Gophers. Sure enough, Minnesota went 7-4 against the spread this year.
This shows again that last year will get you nowhere this year unless you can judge and learn to read the public perception and value of those past results.
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