Sportsbook betting on the NFL is based on lines that are set by online sportsbook odds makers, who understand the fine line between public perception and reality. The key to success against a sportsbook is to learn how to determine board value.
Pro football gives us countless great examples on how to get the most online sportsbook value for your bankroll. The odds makers are fully aware that the public tends to gravitate towards the most popular teams on the board such as the Pittsburgh Steelers, Dallas Cowboys and New England Patriots.
As a result of the popularity of these teams with the sportsbook public the betting lines are often adjusted to reflect this, as the opponents of these teams will often get a better than expected line to attract action their way. Power teams are often poor sportsbook values as home chalks.
But where you can get more bang for your buck is when you take these teams as dogs! The Pittsburgh Steelers have failed to cover 11 out of their last 20 games as a sportsbook favorite. In their last 20 games as sportsbook underdogs, however, they have gotten the cash in 14 out of 20 opportunities!
The New England Patriots have been another strong sportsbook underdog as they have lost only 7 out of their last 20 games against the spread when getting points. As a sportsbook favorite, on the other hand, they have lost 12 out of their last 20 games when laying points!
The Dallas Cowboys have lost 11 out of their last 20 games as a favorite while going an even 10-10 split against the spread in their last 20 games as an underdog. What this ultimately shows is that the linemakers know that the general public’s comfort zone is laying points with power teams.
It takes more nerve to take the points, and the odds makers know this, and set the lines accordingly. Those who have the nerve to “turn on the power” with a dog are the ones making money!
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