Sportsbook betting on the National Football League is something everyone thinks that they can do with success but few actually succeed. The overwhelming majority of online sportsbook gamblers lose at pro football. The big initial mistake that sportsbook gamblers make when betting pro football is that they first look towards the power chalk.
The initial fact to remember here is that there is no online sportsbook value in doing what everyone else does. It’s a lot like buying a tech stock last decade. There comes a time when a stock becomes totally over-valued and inflated because the masses jump on and buy high, rather than low.
A great sportsbook example of this would be the New England Patriots. In 2008 the Pats were coming off a near miss of an undefeated season after losing the Super Bowl to the Giants. Still, based on their past decade of success the Pats were the most popular team at an online sportsbook.
Which leads to mistake number two at a sportsbook, which is banking on the PAST. What New England has done in past seasons for sportsbook gamblers has NOTHING to do with today. In fact, if the Patriots did “too well” as it can be argued that they did in the past, that simply means a painful sportsbook value correction is likely to come.
Sure enough, in 2008, the Patriots were 6-7 against the spread, including a bankroll busting 2-5 against the number at home. The Dallas Cowboys may be “America’s Team” and that should scare anyone looking for sportsbook value on them.
Few teams get as much hype as then Cowboys, just as few teams attract more sportsbook betting dollars than Dallas. As a result, the Cowboys rarely offer good value as evidenced by their 2008 sportsbook record of 6-7 against the spread after 13 games. A great sportsbook example of value is with the Kansas City Chiefs.
Gamblers flocked to bet against the Chiefs, who were a miserable 2-11 straight up after 13 weeks. But it would shock many to realize that Kansas City was a profitable 7-6 against the spread. This is a great lesson on how a team nobody wants can bring ADDED value to the board.
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