Superbowl odds are set based on the public’s demand for or against teams. And the Superbowl betting public loves PAST champions. When handicapping the Superbowl odds it is important to look at the history of a team.
At the same time, however, you cannot become a prisoner to a team’s past success when evaluating the Superbowl odds. A great example of this comes from last year when the New England Patriots were made 12.5-point favorites on the Superbowl odds board against the New York Giants.
The Patriots were, of course, going for an undefeated 19-0 season but were also the proven commodity in the eyes of the general public as they had won three previous Super Bowls. The Giants, on the other hand, had no recent success against the Superbowl odds and were considered an almost accidental Superbowl betting team.
Yet the Giants got the cash and the Vince Lombardi Trophy! At the very beginning of the Superbowl odds history, this backward approach was apparent.
When the NFL Green Bay Packers clobbered the AFL’s Kansas City Chiefs and Oakland Raiders to easily cover the Superbowl odds in the first two games of this event, the general public would look back on that and not consider the AFL teams against the Superbowl odds for games III and IV, which the AFL’s New York Jets and Chiefs easily covered as the better teams that smart handicappers could get great value on.
Another example of backward thinking against the Superbowl odds would be the Green Bay Packers in Super Bowl XXXII as 11 point favorites against the Denver Broncos. Green Bay was the defending champion and considered unbeatable by the Superbowl betting public.
The game was considered a mere formality to establish the second Packer dynasty in the Super Bowl era. Yet everyone seemed to ignore the Packers poor rush defense. Everyone except Denver coach Mike Shanahan and his running back, Terrell Davis, as the Broncos beat the Superbowl odds and Green Bay to 31-24.
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