Superbowl odds value can best be ascertained by comparing the two teams in several key areas against the Superbowl betting line. The first item to check when handicapping the Superbowl odds is if there has been a recent head-to-head meeting between the two teams.
Last year the New England Patriots and New York Giants met a month before the Superbowl odds were posted in the regular season finale in which the Patriots barely won 38-35 as 13-point favorites. That right there would have been an excellent indicator that the Superbowl odds of New England -12.5 were outrageous.
The next item to consider when evaluating the Superbowl odds is the quarterback of each team. It is rare in the history of Superbowl betting that a team without a top fight quarterback ends up being the winner. Twice this decade, the Superbowl odds were beaten by a team with an unproven quarterback or one that was not top shelf.
Baltimore and Trent Dilfer beat the Superbowl odds and New York Giants to cap off the 2000 season and then backup Tom Brady and the New England Patriots overcame the Rams and the Superbowl odds in the 2001 season. In all other cases it was teams with superb quarterbacks that ended up getting the cash and the trophy.
Defense is the next major element in finding success against the Superbowl odds. Rare is the team that beats the Superbowl betting odds without a great defense. Defense is the backbone and foundation of nearly all championship teams and that is definitely the case against the Superbowl odds.
Defense was, in fact, one of the reasons that the Giants upset the Patriots last year as New England’s aging unit could not prevent the Giants from completing a late game winning touchdown drive. Special teams can be critical in the superbowl. Kicker Adam Vinatieri was a major weapon for the Patriots glory years.
An explosive return man or a team that blocks a lot of kicks can often be the difference between two equal teams.
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