Super Bowl odds handicapping is far too often a matter of media hype that takes on a life of its own but has very little to do with Super Bowl betting reality. The most recent example of a shocker with the Super Bowl odds was when the New York Giants beat the New England Patriots 17-14 as 14-point Super Bowl betting underdogs.
It was an upset with the NFL Super Bowl odds that rivaled the New York Jets 16-7 win over the Baltimore Colts as 18-point dogs with the Super Bowl odds in January of 1969. Another big upset was in Super Bowl XXXII when the Denver Broncos beat the Super Bowl odds as 11-point dogs in their 31-24 win over the Green Bay Packers.
This was another case of when the hype regarding the Super Bowl odds took a life of its own. In the case of the Giants there were plenty of clues that they could easily stay within the big Super Bowl odds, let alone possibly win the game outright.
Just a month before the Giants almost upset the Patriots in the final regular season game, which would have ended New England’s undefeated dream season. The Giants had a defense that was equal to New England’s and also had a solid quarterback in Eli Manning.
None of that mattered; however, as the entire handicapping focus with the Super Bowl odds was New England’s shot at perfection. Smart level headed handicappers that did their homework and were sober about the entire picture got one of the biggest bargains in the history of the Super Bowl odds.
The Broncos also had plenty of “tells” in their favor starting with the top ranked offense in the NFL going up against a Packer unit that ranked 20th against the rush. Meanwhile Denver’s defense also outranked the Packers, who were the defending Super Bowl champs.
Green Bay’s status as champions looking to repeat was the story line that overshadowed all reason but Denver backers got an easy payout for their complete handicapping approach to the game.