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Super Bowl Odds - How To Beat The Hype Machine

Super Bowl odds are based as much on public perception and hype than they are based on the actual Super Bowl betting merits of the teams involved.

Super Bowl odds makers have to try and attract an equal amount of Super Bowl betting action on each side, total and prop and that is done based on consumer demand. One of the first things that you will hear when the Super Bowl odds come out is that “The Wise Guys think” or “Las Vegas says.”

That is actually a Super Bowl betting falsehood.  The Super Bowl gambling numbers are set based on what will attract an equal amount of action on either side of any bet.  To put it another way the Super Bowl odds are based on what the line makers believe to be the public perception of the teams and players involved.

In the 2008 Super Bowl between the New England Patriots and the New York Giants the Super Bowl odds had New England as a 14-point favorite.

The big reason the Patriots were such heavy favorites with the Super Bowl odds was that they were 18-0 and looking to complete the first ever 19-0 season ever and the first undefeated season since the 1972 Miami Dolphins.

The Super Bowl odds on the Giants/Patriots matchup where nowhere near where they should have been as the Patriots were a massive overlay because of the Super Bowl betting hype regarding their shot at perfection.  The Giants entered Super Bowl gambling on a roll and playing their best football of the season.

Those setting the Super Bowl odds knew that the Giants almost beat the Patriots just one month before but they also know that the general public would be hammering New England with the Super Bowl odds.  The Giants ended up posting one of the biggest upsets of all time with the Super Bowl odds in a 17-14 win.

Before the Super Bowl odds come out a wise thing to do would be to set your own line for what you believe the game should be based on the actual merits and abilities of the teams involved.  You can then compare your line to the actual line and the more of a discrepancy one way makes for a better value on the other side!