Super Bowl odds, it must first be remembered, are like a stock price. They are based on the Super Bowl betting public’s perception. The Super Bowl odds are built to attract equal action, a fifty/fifty equation.
A good Super Bowl betting tip in your handicapping is to first assess what you believe the actual line SHOULD be based on merit. Then compare your merit based Super Bowl odds against what the Super Bowl betting spread actually is. That is your first step towards getting the best read on actual board value for the game.
Your next step in evaluating the Super Bowl odds should be to get a read on the teams recent results. Sure, they obviously won two or three consecutive games straight up to make the Super Bowl odds board but that does NOT mean that they were covering the spread along the way.
A great example of this would be the 2007 New England Patriots who were a perfect 18-0 straight up as 12.5-point favorites on the Super Bowl odds board. However the Patriots were a most alarming 1-7 against the spread entering the championship game against the Giants.
The Giants, on the other hand, had covered 5 consecutive games heading into their Super Bowl odds match with New England and amongst those payoffs was a cover and near straight up win over the Patriots. Your next step in assessing the Super Bowl odds is to evaluate the respective defenses of the two teams.
Rarely does the team with the weaker defense ever beat the Super Bowl odds. Defense is as good as any indicator of who is the right side of the game. Last year New England’s aging defense could not prevent a final game winning drive by the Giants to win the game.
Kicking is another key component to the Super Bowl odds. A clutch field goal kicker, explosive return man, demonstrated kick blocking abilities, and air tight coverage teams are important ingredients of champions.
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