Super Bowl betting is like history, as many of these lessons repeat themselves against the Super Bowl odds. Super Bowl betting had the ultimate lesson last year when the Giants won and covered as 13.5-point dogs against the Super Bowl odds and New England Patriots.
The lesson is that if you cannot see something coming, you are likely to get blindsided, especially in Super Bowl betting. The year before the Indianapolis Colts were 7-point chalks against the Super Bowl odds and Chicago Bears.
The Super Bowl betting lesson from the Colts 29-17 win and cover is that you should not be Super Bowl betting on a team with the inferior quarterback.
The Colts Peyton Manning may not have had the greatest Super Bowl betting performance but his presence was a major difference in the overall game strategy and Manning was light years ahead of the Bears quarterbacks.
The Super Bowl betting lesson of the 2006 Super Bowl in which Pittsburgh beat Seattle 21-10 as 4-point chalks was that you should never bet against the team with the better defense. Beyond that, Pittsburgh also had a Super Bowl betting advantage at quarterback with Ben Roethlisberger. It was the perfect Super Bowl betting combination.
In both the 2005 and 2004 Super Bowls the New England Patriots won but didn’t cover against the Philadelphia Eagles and Carolina Panthers. The Super Bowl betting lesson from these two games is that you cannot afford to make an overlay, which means laying too many points on a favorite in a relatively even game.
New England was just good enough to escape in both of those Super Bowls, but not good enough to overpower either team as both the Eagles and Panthers had strong defenses that would keep them in the game. The 2003 Super Bowl in which Tampa Bay beat Oakland 48-21 as 4-point dogs proved that the wrong team can often be favored.
It also proved that in a coaching mismatch you want to be on the right side. Oakland’s Bill Callahan was clearly out of his league against “Chucky” Gruden of the Bucs.
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