The AFC Conference Championship game will be played between the New England Patriots and Denver Broncos. The game at Sports Authority Field at Mile High is scheduled to kick off at 3:05 PM ET. Currently, the Pats are slight favorites to win on the road.
The Patriots are 13-4 SU and 8-7-2 ATS so far this season. They are 5-3 on the road, and ten of their games have gone OVER the line, with seven going UNDER. They are coming off of a 27-20 win over the Kansas City Chiefs, where they won against the spread as -6 point home favorites. The total went OVER the 44 point line set by NFL gambling pros in that matchup.
The Broncos are 13-4 SU and 8-8-1 ATS overall this year. They are 7-2 at home, and six of their games went OVER the line, ten went UNDER, and one was a PUSH. They are coming off of a 23-16 win over the Pittsburgh Steelers, where they were -7 point home favorites, resulting in a PUSH. The total went UNDER the 41 point line set by sport gambling sites for that one.
New England is 1-3-1 ATS after a SU win, and 3-11 ATS playing on grass. They are 1-4-2 ATS against teams with a winning record, and 1-5 ATS playing on the road. They are 1-5 ATS in Conference Championship playoff games.
The total has gone OVER in all 4 of their recent playoff games, and OVER in 11 of their last 15 games in January. The total has gone OVER in 4 of their last 5 after a SU win, and OVER in 5 of their last 7 games overall. The total has gone OVER in 39 of their last 55 after a win spreadwise, and OVER in 57 of their last 84 games against AFC teams.
Denver is 3-1-1 ATS against teams with a winning record, and 8-3-1 ATS coming off of a loss spreadwise. They are 1-3-1 ATS overall recently, and 1-3-1 ATS against AFC opponents. They are 1-5-1 ATS in the playoffs, and 0-3-1 ATS at home lately. They are 1-4-1 ATS at home in the playoffs.
The total has gone UNDER in 4 of their last 5 in the playoffs, and UNDER in 4 of their last 5 games in January. The total has gone UNDER in 4 of their last 5 home playoff matchups, and UNDER in 7 of their last 10 at home overall. The total has gone OVER in 34 of their last 49 against teams with a winning record.
Between these teams, the Patriots are 5-2 ATS lately, but 1-5 ATS when playing at Denver. The home team is 6-0 ATS, while the favorite is 5-2 ATS in this series. The total has gone OVER in 6 of their last 7 meetings, and OVER in 8 of their last 11 matchups in Denver.
They last met on November 29, 2015, when the Broncos won 30-24 in overtime, and won against the spread as 2 ½ point home underdogs. The total went OVER the 43 point line set by the online sportsbook in that game.
For Saturday's AFC Conference Championship game, the gambling odds list the Patriots as -3 point road favorites. The over/under is set at 44 ½ points. On the moneyline, New England is a -160, while Denver is a +140.