Odds to win Super Bowl handicappers can often score a good value with the NFL Super Bowl odds by taking the under as the public is always focused on offensive stars.
Last year the New Orleans Saints scored a 31-17 win over the Indianapolis Colts as that high scoring game stayed UNDER the total of 56.5. It was the 5th time in the last 6 Super Bowl games that the final score went under the total.
Last year’s game is yet another fantastic example of how hype drives the odds and the Super Bowl betting direction from the general public. For many days leading up to the game the media spin was that the Saints had no defense and that Colts quarterback Peyton Manning would light of the scoreboard and poke holes against the Saints throughout the game.
The media also was complimentary of the Saints offense with quarterback Drew Brees and the spin took on a life of its own and by Super Sunday it was expected that the game would be a shootout.
In some ways the hype was correct in that there were plenty of points scored but it also points out the moral of the story about how the odds makers know all about the public and hype as it is their job to set up a line that attracts equal action to both sides of any bet. In this case, the over under price was simply jacked up until value oriented sharp handicappers flocked to the under.
There are many causal bettors with the Super Bowl odds that will always look first at the quarterbacks on the teams and at the offensive stars of the game without taking into account value with the spread or totals. And this is where the over under bettors of recent years have been able to get extra value by taking the under.
One of the most important things that a sharp handicapper can do when analyzing the odds to win Super Bowl total is to consider the accuracy of the over under line and if the price is in line with where it needs to be.