Odds to win Super Bowl results of recent years show that the underdog has been the far better value and most dangerous commodity with the NFL Super Bowl odds.
The underdog has paid out in the last 3 Super Bowl games and in 7 of the last 9 games overall. Much of this has to do with a combination of hype and public ignorance as there are far more causal bettors on Super Sunday than on the typical NFL regular season weekend.
Most of the general public betting the Super Bowl will simply watch ESPN or read the headlines online or in the newspaper and it often serves to feed their preconceived notion about the game, without taking into account the actual value or lack thereof on the betting line.
Last year the New Orleans Saints got the money as 4.5 point Super Bowl betting dogs in a 31-17 win over the Indianapolis Colts. The line did not take into account the improving New Orleans defense nor the fact that Indianapolis was a virtual one man team with Peyton Manning.
It simply took into account the public perception that since the Colts flirted with an undefeated season they would steamroll past the Saints.
The Pittsburgh Steelers may have defeated the Arizona Cardinals 27-23 in the 2009 Super Bowl but they did not cover the spread as 7 point favorites. This was yet another stellar example of how media hype has a direct reflection on the Super Bowl odds.
Arizona was a wild card team with a weak defense and that was the media line for the days leading up to the game as it was basically sold that Pittsburgh would overpower and dominate the Cardinals. The hype failed to take into account the explosive Arizona offense that nearly pulled off the upset.
And of course in 2008 the biggest upset with the odds to win Super Bowl took place as the New York Giants defeated the undefeated New England Patriots 17-14 as 14 point dogs in game in which the public and media simply could not see a New England loss.