Odds to win Super Bowl often have the favorite at an overlay as the nature of the hype surrounding the game has a direct effect on the NFL Super Bowl odds.
Of course the greatest example of hype and price, at least in the modern era of the Super Bowl, comes from Super Bowl XLII in February of 2008 when the New York Giants were 14 point dogs against the undefeated New England Patriots, who were trying to become the first team since the 1972 Miami Dolphins to clinch a perfect season.
The matchup was a great lesson in Super Bowl hype and how the media and the public can join together to make for unrealistic expectations. By the time the Patriots and Giants took the field on Super Sunday it was considered a sure thing that the Patriots would blow out the Giants for an easy payout and to become immortal as only the second undefeated team in the history of the Super Bowl.
The hype ignored the fact that the Giants had nearly upset the Patriots in a close game just a few weeks before in the regular season, and also ignored the fact that the Giants had one of the better defenses in Super Bowl betting. The Giants ended up winning the game 17-14 for an easy payout in one of the biggest upsets in the history of pro football.
The Giants win over the Patriots offers great lessons for handicappers getting ready to bet on the Super Bowl odds but the biggest one of all is to keep a level head and not allow yourself to be caught up in media hype and the overlays and poor value that comes along with that hype.
The hucksters at ESPN are often wrong, as sharp handicappers quickly discover, and the odds to win Super Bowl board is not based on the true ability of the teams involved but instead is based on public perception, as the line is meant to attract equal amounts of action to both sides of the game. To gain an edge, look opposite of hype.