NFL preseason odds will feature futures that are based in large part on last year’s results as that is the direction that the football gambling public tends to go.
A good way to evaluate the pre season and futures board is to look at last year’s surprise teams, both good and bad, and expect something similar to a stock market correction for 2010.
A great example of this would be the New York Jets, who were given no chance to contend in 2009 as they were rebuilding with a new coach and rookie quarterback and yet they made it to the AFC championship game and nearly won it.
Now that the Jets are being touted as a leading contender to win the Super Bowl their board value will be depleted. Beyond that, their opponents will take them seriously this year which means that there will be less of a surprise and upset element. Gamblers may want to avoid going “all in” with the Jets.
Two teams that were highly touted in 2009 that went down were the Chicago Bears and New York Giants. The fact that they did not live up to expectations last year means that the public will be off of them for the most part, at least early on, and that can mean enhanced board value.
The Giants are still a dangerous team with Eli Manning at quarterback and did some good re-tooling in the off season, especially on defense. The Bears have new coordinators on both sides of the line and Jay Cutler should be less mistake prone in his second year as signal caller.
The San Diego Chargers have had the good fortune with the football odds to be in the dreadful AFC West but they have failed to live up to expectations as a championship team. San Diego is again favored to win the division but may prove to be an overlay as Kansas City has improved and Denver was in the race for much of last year.
The Cincinnati Bengals rallied to win the AFC North and make the playoffs for the first time in 5 years. But the Bengals still have problems at quarterback and their division rivals from Baltimore are improved which means that the Bengals may go back down as an overvalued stock with the NFL preseason odds for 2010.