NFL football gambling has become over the top for Super Sunday as handicappers, gamblers, and casual fans are all looking for a variety of ways to play the odds to win Super Bowl.
It is interesting to note that in 5 of the last 6 football betting seasons the Super Bowl has gone under the total despite an incredible amount of big name offensive talent and high scoring teams that have taken part in the game.
The ultimate lesson of this recent trend with over under totals is that the odds makers are well aware of the public’s tendency to bet the game over the total on Super Sunday and as a result that total is set higher than normal in order to attract an equal amount of action to the under, which has been the far better board value in recent years.
A great example of how the value is often with the under comes from last year’s Super Bowl game between the Indianapolis Colts and the New Orleans Saints, who featured two big name quarterbacks and high scoring offensive attacks with suspect defenses on each side.
Despite the Colts Peyton Manning and the Saints Drew Brees having the ability to light up the scoreboard with record numbers and with those questionable and inconsistent defenses the Saints 31-17 win stayed well under the Super Bowl betting total of 56.5.
The general betting public spent two weeks hearing ESPN and the rest of the media regurgitate how the game was going to be a shoot out between two high scoring teams that had less than powerful defenses and while a high scoring game was expected, nobody bothered to question the high total posted on the Super Bowl odds board.
The price of 56.5 was far above what is normal for a NFL game let alone a championship matchup in which the play calls are often more conservative and the defense has a tendency to buckle down and play tighter.
Value is what NFL football gambling is all about and it is important to judge the merits of the over under line based on the ability of the two teams on Super Sunday rather than the media hype.