NFL betting comes down to simple winning, losing, and ability in the regular season but the NFL gambling factors in preseason are far more complicated.
In the regular season, teams are far more concerned about schemes and tactics. Playing time is a consideration that merits little attention in the regular season, unless a top starter is lost to injury.
In preseason the schemes are pretty basic and the main concern is over fundamentals and whether or not players are picking up on changes that were made during the off season.
One of the big keys to factoring the NFL preseason odds is knowing that most of the players that see the majority of playing time in the exhibition season will not be the regular players on the field come the fall.
Beyond that when the top stars do see limited action in the preseason they will be running basic offensive and defensive plays as teams do not want to reveal much more than a basic set of plays for opponents to study.
For teams such as the Washington Redskins, Seattle Seahawks, and Buffalo Bills that have a new coach, the preseason is far more about working out the wrinkles of new systems that are employed by those coaches as well as sorting out what is usually a lot of roster and lineup changes from the previous regime.
In addition to a scaled back game plan there is a lot more situational game planning in the preseason. Teams may run or pass at times that they never would in a regular season game with the football odds.
There may be an emphasis on third down plays, goal line plays, or red zone schemes in which more experiments are utilized than what would be the case in the regular season. There may also be far more fourth down gambles in exhibition games that don’t count than would be the case in the regular season with playoff berths at stake.
Then there is the golden rule of all teams when it comes to preseason and that is to do all that they can to have “ZERO INJURIES.”
Part of the NFL betting dynamics for preseason handicapping is that key players are not to be put at risk in August.