Knowing that finding value is as important a handicapping skill as anything else in being successful in NFL gambling is great, but the trick is knowing where to find value, how to recognize and find it. Those who learn this elusive trick will be amongst the few, the proud, and the winners in pro football gambling.
The first and most simple place to begin a pro NFL gambling handicapper's search for NFL gambling value is with the underdog. Always start with the dog and consider taking the points first, before you do anything else.
Why? Pro football gambling has perhaps more ignorant money wagered on NFL teams than on any other sport, or form of gambling period, that there is.
Pro football is not only the most popular of all forms of sports betting but is also the United States' most popular spectator sport and that line between players and fans is becoming increasingly blurred with each new season. As more NFL fans also become pro NFL gambling participants the influx of fan and ignorant money wagered continues to increase.
And when fans are betting with that ignorant money, it is done so on the better team, the favorite, particularly if they are at home, and those who make the NFL gambling odds are fully aware of this and jack up the price of the quality home chalk, making the less appealing dog all the more valuable.
To put this in another way, most participants in NFL Gambling have no real sophistication or knowledge. Their knowledge is on FOOTBALL. And there is a distinct difference.
When it comes to pro NFL gambling, those who have learned to think in terms of an oddsmaker rather than as an NFL gambling fan stand the best chance to make real money because they are thinking the same way and with the same mentality as the house, rather than the consumers that keep the sportsbook in business by losing their football gambling money on overlays, which is an insider term for laying more points with the chalk than necessary.
You simply will not find as much value taking favorites in NFL gambling as you will taking dogs when looking at NFL gambling odds, not only because more ignorant money is usually on the favorite but also because the NFL teams are so evenly matched in pro football that taking the points is, more often than not, a way to eat at the sportsbooks' edge and “vig” of ten-percent.