It is a wise strategy for a gambler to be on the lookout for the pro football betting equivalent of a stock market correction and to try and anticipate when a NFL betting team that is covering the football betting spreads at a high rate is about to fall and when losers begin to bounce back with profits.
The trick is to know what to look for and what signs are real. The trap that too many football betting fans fall into, unfortunately, is that they tend to overreact and anticipate too eagerly the demise of a team, particularly champions, when they are gambling on football.
In week two of the 2005 football betting season the Patriots lost at Carolina 17-27 as 3-point chalks. For many gamblers this was the sign that they had been eagerly anticipating, proof that the Patriots were about to begin operating in the red and that they were through not just as a champion, but as a contender all together.
Nothing could be further from the truth and, in fact, this attitude helped the Patriots become good values in football betting games that immediately followed a straight up loss. A great example of this came in New England's next game at Pittsburgh, the eventual Super Bowl champions.
New England was a 3-point dog in football betting spreads, which many football betting fans considered far too light, as Pittsburgh would be motivated with the revenge angle, having lost on their home field to New England in the previous season's AFC championship game.
Many “experts” and NFL betting fans felt that this game would signify in football betting the passing of the baton from the falling champion to the up and coming one. Conventional “wisdom” was all over the Steelers, as was considerable cash. New England was unwanted by the football betting masses, who leaped in line to bet against them.
And once again the masses proved to be asses as New England scored a 23-20 upset win and payoff for contrarians. Pittsburgh minus the three points proved to be fools gold and a false bargain in football betting spreads. The NFL betting pattern repeated itself again right away, however.
New England was next clobbered at home by struggling San Diego 17-41 and traveled to Atlanta to face the NFC co-favorite Falcons, who were a 3-point chalk. Once again the Patriots defied the masses with a 31-28 win, demonstrating the dangers in NFL betting of writing off champions too soon.