As has been stated in other articles, you will not make a profit at NFL gambling by sticking exclusively with home favorite wagers, which offer the least amount of overall value against the football gambling lines because of their mass appeal, which drives the price up into overlay status far too often.
Yet there is going to be a time when taking the home chalk is the right call to make for NFL gambling, it simply comes down to knowing how to recognize when that time is right when performing on those NFL teams. First, you want to start with a notoriously tough home team, such as the Kansas City Chiefs.
In the opening weekend of the season, the Chiefs were an outstanding home chalk play in NFL gambling lines. Why? First, Kansas City's Arrowhead Stadium is as tough a venue for visiting NFL teams as there is in all of professional sports.
Second, the Chiefs and their fans were highly motivated to come out strong after a disappointing and underachieving NFL gambling season from 2004. Third, Kansas City was a notoriously strong play in both their season opener and their home opener through the years.
Fourth, which was just as important as all of the other reasons, they were playing an NFL team like New York Jets that was respected for their 2004 playoff run, which kept the price down to a bargain level at Kansas City minus three.
With all of those factors in their favor, the Chiefs were an excellent value on the NFL gambling board as proven by their 27-7 win and cover. Kansas City again provided an excellent lesson in pro football gambling value with the home chalk in NFL gambling lines with their November 6 encounter with the arch rival Oakland Raiders.
Oakland had won two consecutive games both straight up and against the spread, although against relatively weak opposition at home against NFL teams like Buffalo and then at Tennessee, which helped inflate their NFL gambling value and keep the price down.
Kansas City should have been a five to six point home chalk in NFL gambling lines for this matchup, but because of the Raiders' modest winning streak, the Chiefs only had to lay three points at home against the arch rivals, an incredible value as proven by their 27-23 win and cover.
Part of recognizing value with home chalks is recognizing the timing issue before jumping to the NFL gambling lines. There is a time and a place for nearly everything in pro football gambling and, as these two Chiefs games demonstrate, and that includes taking the home chalk.